Did Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs deals signal change in way NFL values RBs?

While it may have taken longer than anticipated for a pair of the NFL’s top running backs, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, to secure long-term contracts, their deals didn’t necessarily result in a market correction for the position as a whole.

It appears that, at least for a brief moment this offseason, the bargaining power tilted in their favor, and they capitalized: Barkley with a three-year, $37.7 million contract ($26 million guaranteed) with the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacobs with a four-year contract. $48 million deal (12.5 million guaranteed) with the Green Bay Packers.

But unlike the league’s premium positions, where prices have increased annually, running backs have yet to reach the value of the biggest deals from a few years ago.

Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers ($16 million) and Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints ($15 million) still lead the position in average annual value, and both contracts were signed in 2020. Jonathan Taylor, who secured his new deal with Los Indianapolis Colts last season after a trade request, ranked third at $14 million annually. Beyond that, it was the first time in two years that a running back signed a multi-year extension worth at least $10 million annually.

Barkley ($12.6 million), Nick Chubb ($12.2 million) and Jacobs ($12 million) are the only others averaging over $10 million, and Barkley and Jacobs found their deals in free agency.

For comparison, nine running backs in 2023 were playing on contracts worth more than $10 million a year, although Jacobs and Barkley negotiated slight increases to their franchise numbers and Tony Pollard played under his tag.

Eight running backs in 2022 had deals worth at least $12 million, but that’s when the turnaround began. McCaffrey was traded midseason, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook were released after the season, and Aaron Jones took a pay cut. Eight running backs in 2021 also had deals worth at least $12 million, and there were seven in 2020.

While a drop to six $12 million backs in 2024 isn’t necessarily a massive change, the combination of timing and circumstances is noteworthy. Taylor, Barkley and Jacobs held out last summer in hopes of revitalizing the running back market, especially with free agency on the horizon.

“I’m surprised they got paid,” said one NFL executive, who was granted anonymity to speak openly about the market. “I didn’t see anything that altered recent history this offseason.”

In 2022, Jacobs led the league in rushing and yards from scrimmage, and Barkley finished in the top five in each category. Both were first-round picks still in the prime of their careers, and were unable to get anything other than a pay raise from their original teams.

Last month, both had to look for new destinations to get better deals. As the league’s contracts have shown, they were unable to improve the course around them. Rather, they continued to be the exceptions in the position.

“For select guys like Barkley, it’s about adding a piece to win it all,” one coach said of the Eagles’ addition. “I think it will again be the relatively lowest paid position.”

Barkley, Jacobs and Taylor all missed a few games last season due to injuries, which does nothing to alleviate teams’ biggest concern with the position. Generally speaking, relying too much on a running back, financially and on the field, is considered a gamble for injury reasons. All things being equal, teams would prefer a budget-conscious approach and a backfield rotation to keep the offense going if a player goes down.

“(One) more reason to continue (doing business) as is, since the two main drivers who received the tag last year did not stay healthy,” an executive said.

However, there was a slight change in favor of the position. Derrick Henry ($8 million a year), D’Andre Swift ($8 million), Pollard ($7.25 million) and Jones ($7 million) boosted the upper middle class.

In 2023, there was a gap between backs of $10 million and James Conner, who ranked 10th in average annual value at $7 million. Now, 12 running backs are making at least $7 million, and there is no longer such a gap between the middle and upper class at the position.

Barring some kind of major change in player leverage, the recent trend makes it seem unlikely that top backs will ever make $15 million a year again. But if they can keep their value in the upper-mid range, it should help the financial depth of the position as a whole.

Of course, quarterbacks have set the bar from a financial perspective, and wide receivers, edge defenders and cornerbacks have also continued to outdo each other in the race to get paid.

In 2020, 10 quarterbacks played on deals worth at least $30 million a year, but there will be at least 16 with that number in 2024, including a dozen at the $40 million mark. As a catcher, four players earned an average of $20 million in 2020, but there are 16 who will reach that bar in 2024.

In Edge Rusher, $20 million players jumped from five in 2020 to 12 in 2024. There were two $19 million cornerbacks in 2020, compared to eight now. At offensive tackle, there were two $20 million players in 2020, but now there are 13.

The point is that teams have adjusted their rosters to better reflect the game’s modern strategies. And surely, although the salary cap has increased over the years, it is still telling that the financial dynamics have evolved with specific passing positions as running backs’ contracts have deteriorated.

It was still a beneficial offseason stretch for running backs, but that should not be confused with a radical shift in teams’ financial investments. The league’s elite haven’t been getting the same contracts as they did several years ago.

(Photos by Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley: Kirby Lee and Kyle Ross/USA Today)