Where do Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians go from here?

Cleveland’s starting rotation has been the backbone of the team for a decade, and the group entered this season with a lot of potential… and fragility.

Shane Bieber embodied both qualities, rediscovering his award-winning self on the mound, as his elbow screamed with every pitch. Now, he’s headed into season-ending Tommy John surgery, leaving his future uncertain and the Guardians’ rotation in disarray early in the season, putting a damper on the club’s 6-2 start.

Where does this leave the rotation?

In a precarious place.

They need Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen to defend against any setbacks in year two. They need Triston McKenzie, who also suffered an elbow injury last year, to stay healthy. They need Gavin Williams, another member of the Tender Elbow Club, to recover quickly but safely. Williams is a few weeks away from pitching in a major league game, team president Chris Antonetti said Saturday.

So, it’s Bibee, Allen, McKenzie and then a bunch of tiles. Carlos Carrasco and Tyler Beede made their way onto the Opening Day roster after signing minor league deals with the organization. Carrasco is in the rotation, and Beede, who was stretched as a starter in camp, has pitched out of the pen so far.

Xzavion Curry and Ben Lively both missed time in spring training due to a virus. Each of them has logged a rehab start at Triple-A Columbus as they recover. Antonetti said either could be an option. Curry took 53 shots in his setup; Lively threw 45.

Left-handed prospect Joey Cantillo could have been a candidate, but he will be out for a couple of months with a hamstring strain. Hunter Gaddis, who moved into a relief role, is expected to remain there.

Carrasco and McKenzie will start the final two games of the club’s series in Minnesota this weekend. Allen will be promoted one day and start Cleveland’s home opener on Monday in Bieber’s place. Bibee could pitch on regular rest Tuesday, but after that, the team will look at its options. Meanwhile, reliever Peter Strzelecki was called up on Saturday to take Bieber’s place on the roster.

Manager Stephen Vogt said his message to the team Saturday was: “It’s okay to not be okay. But this is what it is. We have the opportunity to go out and play every day. The next man up mentality is what we have to think about. You can’t replace Shane Bieber. But we have guys who can step up and give us meaningful innings.”

What does this mean for Bieber’s future?

This is not what he had in mind when he resisted the club’s long-term contract offers. He will enter free agency this winter, after missing significant time in 2021 (shoulder strain), 2023 (elbow soreness) and 2024 (elbow surgery). Since the recovery timeline for the Tommy John procedure is typically more than a year, he could miss a good portion of 2025 as well.

It’s a tough landing for Bieber, who has proven that, when healthy, he’s among the most effective starters in the league. Since the start of the 2019 season, his first full year in the majors, he has a 3.02 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Even after his fastball velocity dropped and he lost confidence in his curveball, he reinvented himself in 2022, leaning more on his cutter and slider and logging 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA.

This season, he totaled 20 strikeouts in his first two starts. He didn’t allow a run in any outing, which is even more impressive given that he didn’t physically recover between starts. After shutting out the Mariners on Tuesday, the swelling and pain in his elbow did not subside. That prompted imaging and consultations with several doctors, leading to the diagnosis that his ACL needs repair.

Through a pair of starts, Shane Bieber leads the major leagues in strikeouts with 20.#For land pic.twitter.com/f7ibqNwGOi

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 3, 2024

Bieber will turn 29 at the end of May. Could he settle for a two-year deal, in which the mutual hope is a return from injury sometime in Year 1 and a chance to rebuild his value in Year 2?

Tyler Mahle, who underwent Tommy John surgery last May, signed that type of contract with the Rangers. He will earn $5.5 million this season, although he is not expected to pitch until mid-summer. He will earn another $16.5 million next season. (This wouldn’t be the first time Bieber followed in Mahle’s footsteps: when Mahle stopped attending UC Santa Barbara to sign with the Reds after high school, a spot on the university staff opened up for Bieber, a pitcher .)

Brandon Woodruff signed a similar deal with the Brewers in February. The Brewers gave him a $2.5 million salary for 2024, even though he is recovering from shoulder surgery. If they want, they can cut ties after this season or exercise a team option for 2025 (worth $5 million, with a $10 million buyout or a $20 million salary for 2026).

Could Bieber reach that kind of deal in Cleveland? The headquarters of an acclaimed launcher factory seems like a good place to set up shop, although the Guardians typically don’t pay for outside launchers, especially with higher risk. Maybe there is some common ground to attack.

The Guardians received trade offers for Bieber over the winter (and even last summer, before he was shut down due to elbow soreness), but teams approached him as a buy-low effort and Cleveland didn’t consider anything particularly attractive. By retaining him, the Guardians positioned themselves to lean on him to compete or move him at the trade deadline. Now, neither of those things is possible.

Bieber made the decision Friday night to undergo surgery in the coming days.

“He’s devastated by this,” Antonetti said. “He feels like he’s letting a lot of people down. And I tried to assure Shane that he couldn’t be further from the truth.”

Who is the most important player after Bieber’s injury?

I’m McKenzie. This rotation needs a rock, someone who can chew innings at a high level. So what about the guy who also suffered an elbow injury last year and has Cleveland holding its breath every time he throws?

Bieber and McKenzie were essentially co-aces in 2022, paving Cleveland’s path to a division title and an appearance in the American League Division Series. McKenzie, however, made only four starts last season due to a back shoulder strain and elbow sprain. He opted to rest his elbow rather than head to the operating table.

McKenzie has reported no injury problems since the end of last season, but his fastball averaged just 90.5 mph in his first start, nearly two mph below his typical velocity. The Mariners hit that fastball on Monday, with an average exit velocity of 101.2 mph against the field.

(Photo: Jason Miller/Getty Images)